Conditions for Defoliation Timing in Southeast Virginia
9-12-2025
The last three weeks have created a new expectation for both cotton and peanuts in our area. We have moved into a strong cutout, but the maturity of the crops has not advanced as much as we are used to during the weeks surrounding Labor Day. Two weather conditions explain what we are seeing in the field. At the end of the third week of August, the rainfall spigot essentially cut off on the entire region. Crops loaded with maturing bolls and nuts used up the reserves quickly and parts of our region entered this three-week drought with low soil moisture to start with. In addition, our temperature averages have been below normal with a few hot days sprinkled in. During 3 weeks of calendar days, we only gained 2 weeks of maturity. The net result is that our early crop has turned back into average maturity. I’m not seeing anything ready yet although some in the driest areas have moved along. Temperatures have warmed back up, and early defoliation timing probably comes down to the top crop and rainfall. Sorta sounds normal.
Predictions (He who lives by the crystal ball will chew shattered glass)
Overall, I don’t think the defoliation timing will follow planting date as closely as soil type and fertility. I expect some farms could be ready during the third week of September (beginning week of 15th) but more likely the early defoliation will begin during the 4th week (beginning September 21). This will be early planted, sandier fields, and the more southern parts of the region, particularly if they were dry most of August.
By week that October comes in (beginning Sept. 28), I think there will be a good bit of acreage that is ready. These ideas reflect an expectation of normal temperatures for the rest of September into October.
The latest cotton will have high fertility with extra top crop, strong land and later planting dates and we will no doubt see variety influences here. These should still be in good shape by mid-October. We seem to always find some deer or herbicide damage, gappy stands or late replants that makes us want to play the late October game, but WOW that is a long time from now.
Next week we'll add traditional methods for determining crop maturity and share insights from some early looking.
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